美国总统特朗普杀死伊朗军事领袖苏莱曼尼的决定,为何引发了如此强烈的连锁反应?中东局势的未来将如何? 

Why did US President Donald Trump's decision to kill Iran's military leader, Sleimani, trigger such a strong chain reaction? What will be the future of the situation in the Middle East?

  这一波冲突,由2019年12月27日一名美国承包商的死开始,通过一系列“以牙还牙”的互相袭击,逐步发酵到了如今的地步。

The wave of clashes, which began with the death of a U.S. contractor on December 27,2019, gradually fermented to its present point through a series of \"tit-for-tat\" attacks on each other.

  《纽约时报》称,自“911”以来,五角大楼官员经常向总统提供“不太可能的选项”,以使其他选项显得更加现实。

Since 911, pentagon officials have often offered the president "unlikely options" to make other options more realistic, according to 《's new york times.

  然而,特朗普偏偏选择了这一方案,而且似乎并未经过深思熟虑。 中新社记者陈孟统摄"src="/cnsupload/big/2019/12-19/4-426/"style="font-size:12px;text-align:center;"title="资料图:美国总统特朗普。记者陈孟统摄"/>

However, Trump chose this option, and it does not seem to have been considered. China News Agency correspondent Chen Mengtong \"src=\"\/cnsupload\/big\/2019\/12-19\/4-426\/\" style=\" font-size:12px; text-align: center;\" title=\" U.S. President Trump. Reporter Chen Mengtong \"\/>

  不过,特朗普也不是一开始就“走极端”的。根据《纽约时报》的报道,12月28日,特朗普曾拒绝这个选项,只授权对民兵组织进行空袭。

Trump, however, did not \"go to extremes\" in the first place. On december 28th, according to the new york times, mr. trump rejected the option and authorized only air strikes against militias.

  白宫辩称,这是因为有情报显示苏莱曼尼在策划“紧急”袭击。但这一情报的重要性和真实性本身,在美国政府内部也有争议。

The White House argued that it was because of intelligence that Suleimani was planning an \"emergency\" attack. But the importance and authenticity of this information itself are controversial within the US government.

  更何况,杀死苏莱曼尼一事,并非首次被提出。美国前总统奥巴马和小布什都曾经面对过这一选项,但是他们担心,这可能在中东引发新的战争。

Moreover, the killing of Sulemanni was not the first time. Former U.S. President Barack Obama and George Bush have both faced this option, but they fear that this could lead to a new war in the Middle East.

  《纽约时报》援引前中央情报局分析师艾丽莎·斯洛特金的话称,“阻止他们暗杀苏莱曼尼的只有一个问题,那就是引起反击和可能使我们置身于冲突之中的空袭值得吗?”

《 The New York Times quoted former CIA analyst Alisa Slotkin as saying," There's only one question that stops them from assassinating Suleimanny: Is it worth the fightback and the air strikes that could put us in the midst of the conflict?"

  安保资本首席分析师奥利弗(ShaneOliver)称,局势进一步升级的风险显然已经加大,考虑对伊朗的直接打击、伊朗威胁报复及特朗普的强硬姿态,带来油价上涨威胁。

Shane Oliver, chief analyst at security capital, said the risk of a further escalation was clearly heightened, considering a direct strike against Iran, Iran's threats of retaliation and Trump's tough stance, posing a threat of higher oil prices.

  当地时间1月6日晚,伊朗政府在一份声明中表示,伊朗在中止履行伊核协议的第五阶段中,放弃了最后一个限制,即“离心机数量的限制”。因此,伊朗的核计划将不再受到任何限制。

On the evening of january 6 local time, the government said in a statement that iran had abandoned the last limit, the \"limit on the number of centrifuges \", in the fifth phase of its suspension of the iranian nuclear deal. Therefore, Iran's nuclear program will not be subject to any restrictions.

  同时,伊朗也表示,与国际原子能机构的合作将像以前一样继续进行。如果取消制裁,并且满足伊朗的利益,那么伊朗将准备恢复履行伊核协议。

Meanwhile, Iran has said its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency will continue as before. If sanctions are lifted and Iran's interests met, Iran will be ready to resume its implementation of the Iran nuclear deal.

  中国国际问题研究院研究员董漫远在接受记者采访时表示,伊朗退出协议的表态虽然是为了展示强硬,但是实际上还是在“以攻为守”,本质还是想要捍卫伊核协议的有效性。

Dong manyuan, a researcher at the china institute of international studies, told reporters that iran's exit from the agreement was intended to be tough, but it was still \"offensive\" and essentially wanted to defend the validity of the iranian nuclear deal.

  在美国总统特朗普于2018年单方面宣布美国退出伊核协议后,该协议的命运一直不明朗。舆论普遍认为,此次美国企图通过“清除”伊朗高级将领,进一步向伊朗极限施压。

The fate of U.S. President Donald Trump's unilateral announcement in 2018 that the United States was withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal has been unclear. It is widely believed that the United States attempted to \"remove\" Iran's top generals to further pressure the Iranian limit.

  伊朗此前已经开始逐步停止履行协议内容。而美国此次的举动无疑触及伊朗底线,不仅伊核协议的履行被完全停滞,同时不排除伊朗发起大规模报复的可能性。

Iran has already begun to phase out the terms of the agreement. The U.S. move certainly touched Iran's bottom line, not only because its nuclear deal has been completely stalled, but also because it does not rule out widespread retaliation.

  5日,德法英三位领导人进行了电话交谈。德国政府发布的联合声明称:“我们特别呼吁伊朗避免进一步的暴力行为……还呼吁伊朗避免采取与伊核协议不一致的相关行动。”

On the 5th, three leaders of Germany, France and Britain had a telephone conversation. \"We specifically call on Iran to avoid further violence... It also calls on Iran to avoid actions that are inconsistent with the Iran nuclear deal.

  中国前驻伊朗大使华黎明在接受记者采访时表示,美军从2003年开始入侵伊拉克,已经占领了16年,在伊拉克看来美军无异于“侵略军”。近期,美军更是不断地侵犯伊拉克的主权。

China's former ambassador to iran, hua liming, told reporters that the u. s.military invasion of iraq since 2003, has been occupied for 16 years, in iraq, the u. s. military is tantamount to \"invading army.\" Recently, the U. S. military has repeatedly violated Iraq's sovereignty.

  美国国务院对伊拉克议会的投票结果表示失望。而特朗普则称,美国军人不打算离开伊拉克,直到后者为美国人所建的空军基地付清费用。他同时威胁对伊拉克实施制裁。

The U.S. State Department expressed disappointment at the vote in Iraq's parliament. Mr. Trump says U.S. troops aren't going to leave Iraq until the latter pays for an American-built air base. He also threatened to impose sanctions on Iraq.

  近日来,在伊朗和伊拉克,都有众多民众走上街头,为苏莱曼尼和伊拉克什叶派民兵武装“人民动员组织”副指挥官穆汉迪斯表示哀悼,不少民众高喊反美口号,要求发动全面报复。

In recent days, in iran and iraq, a large number of people have taken to the streets to express their condolences to surimani and iraqi shia militia \"people mobilization organization\" deputy commander muhandis, many people shouted anti-american slogans for full revenge.

  董漫远分析称,目前,伊朗民众对美国的愤怒情绪位于高点,但伊朗政府并不希望与美国开战,因此其报复行动会“有序进行”,主要的形态还是发挥伊朗“朋友圈”的作用。

According to mr dong, iranian anger at the u.s. is at a high point, but the iranian government does not want to go to war with the u.s., so its retaliatory action will be \"orderly \", the main form is to play the role of iran's\" circle of friends \".

  专家分析,美国在该地区的机构人员和驻中东的美军可能面临的局面是,时常遭遇到一些打击或者袭击,但背后的主使者却很难查清。

Experts say u. s. agency personnel in the region and u. s. troops in the middle east may face a situation in which there have been frequent strikes or attacks, but the main messenger behind them is hard to figure out.

  半岛电视台认为,可能被袭击的目标,从地理区域层面上可以是一个非常广阔的地区,从波斯湾延伸到伊拉克、叙利亚、黎巴嫩和也门,甚至印度次大陆。

Al-jazeera believes that the possible targets could be a very broad area at the geographic level, extending from the persian gulf to iraq, syria, lebanon and yemen, and even the indian subcontinent.

  德黑兰大学政治学教授哈米德·穆萨维表示,如果伊朗决定做出回应,该地区部署的美国军事基地,特别是在伊拉克、阿富汗和阿联酋的军事基地,可能成为伊朗部队的潜在目标。

Hamid Musawi, a political science professor at Tehran University, said the U.S. military bases deployed in the region, especially in Iraq, Afghanistan and the United Arab Emirates, could be a potential target for Iranian forces if Iran decides to respond.


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